Why Obama flipped on Iran bill

Washington (CNN)Over
the past two weeks, President Barack Obama made a full-court press to
persuade lawmakers to back his Iran diplomacy and abandon a bill giving
Congress a say in any final deal.
Ultimately,
though, the White House was forced to bow to the reality: Enough
Democrats supported the principle of allowing Congress to weigh in on
the nuclear deal that even a veto threat couldn’t stop it.
Shortly
before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee unanimously voted Tuesday
to send the bill to the Senate floor, the White House indicated that
the veto threat had been withdrawn.
Republicans
and some Democrats chalked up the about-face to a calculation by the
administration that the numbers simply weren’t on its side.
“I
don’t think they had a choice. The votes were there,” said Arizona
Republican Sen. Jeff Flake, a committee member. “I think they certainly
didn’t want to flirt with the situation where there would be enough
votes to override a veto. That’s where we were headed.”
As
California Sen. Dianne Feinstein, the top Democrat on the Senate
intelligence committee, put it: “I think it was a recognition of the lay
of the ground, so to speak.”
But the White House is pushing back on the suggestion that it caved on the bill.
“Despite
the things about it that we don’t like, enough substantial changes have
been made that the President would be willing to sign it,” White House
Press Secretary Josh Earnest said Tuesday, “because it would reflect the
kind of compromise that he’d be willing to sign.”
According
to the administration, those changes include shortening a 60-day review
period to a maximum of 52 days, dropping the requirement that Iran
declare it will not sponsor terrorism and other similar poison-pill
language, and wiping out “other extraneous elements” from the measure.

‘They did not cave’

“They
did not cave. They did not cave,” said Maryland Sen. Ben Cardin, the
top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. “We looked at
the language and got the language to where they were comfortable.”
Despite
the White House’s massive outreach across Capitol Hill — the
administration placed more than 130 calls, many from President Barack
Obama, Vice President Joe Biden and Secretary of State John Kerry, while
several Cabinet secretaries held briefings for lawmakers — it was the
close discussions with Cardin that resolved many of the White House’s
concerns.
Cardin
was the key point person in hammering out the compromise version with
Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman and lead bill sponsor Bob
Corker of Tennessee.
While Cardin said
the administration got most if not all of what it was looking for, the
Republican senator maintained that the legislation remained
substantially the same as what he had originally drafted.
“The
bill is slightly different but we’re talking about a gnat’s hair
difference,” Corker said. “It gave them (the White House) a chance to
say changes had been made even though the essence is what it’s always
been.”

That
essence includes requiring the details of any Iran deal — due by the
end of June — be sent to Congress and paving the way for a vote on a
joint resolution that could express approval or disapproval of the deal.
During Congress’s review, the President wouldn’t have the ability to
waive congressionally mandated sanctions on Iran.
While
originally the review period was set to last 60 days, the compromise
dials that down to 30 days, with 12 more days added automatically if
Congress passes a bill and sends it to the President, and an additional
10 days of congressional review if Obama vetoes that legislation.
If the deal is submitted late, after July 9, the review period reverts to 60 days.

Obama must certify Iran’s compliance

Either way, Obama is required to certify to Congress every 90 days that Iran is complying with the terms of the deal.
The
bill also requires the President to make a series of detailed reports
to Congress on issues ranging from Iran’s nuclear program to its
ballistic missile work and its support for terrorism globally,
particularly against the U.S. and its allies.
When
it came to getting the White House to drop its veto threat, Republican
Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin acknowledged that the math also aided
Obama: He only needs 34 senators to agree with him to sustain a veto of
the bill, which would be read as “basically tacit approval of the deal.”
“That’s
a pretty low threshold,” he said. “He probably came to the conclusion
that no matter what the deal is, he can hurdle that bar.”
Massachusetts Sen. Ed Markey, another committee Democrat, also thought that number helped sway the administration.
Still, he said, “I’m sure they were not thrilled with ultimately having to cede this.”
Markey
said the changes to the bill that Cardin was able to work out with
Corker also helped many Democrats who shared the administration’s
concerns stay on board.
“All
of the concerns that members had been raising on the Democratic side
were now gone, and so as a result the argument came down to whether
there would be a congressional role at all,” he explained. “It made it a
lot easier for those Democrats who had been raising objections on
terrorism certification and other issues to then feel more comfortable
voting yes.”
That in turn gave the bill too much Democratic support for the president to be secure in a veto.
Virginia
Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine, a member of the Foreign Relations Committee
who has been pressing to give Congress the chance to vote on a deal,
said it became increasingly clear in his recent discussions with the
administration that the main issue wasn’t whether Congress would be
involved, but how to structure a process both sides felt was workable.
“It’s
really a choice between congressional involvement under a prompt and
reasonable set of rules or a free-for-all involvement,” he said. “I
think the events of the last couple of months convinced them — yep, it
might not have been our original choice, but we’d rather have it
circumscribed and appropriate.”
CNN’s Laura Koran and Alexandra Jaffe contributed to this report.
source: cnn.com

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